For many commercial professionals, January is when a vague sense of wanting something different turns into an application. Bonuses have been paid, the year has been reviewed, and the break gives people time to think.
The surveys point the same way. In one poll of 2,000 UK office workers, 47% said they planned to start job hunting in January. Separate research reported by HR Review found up to one in ten workers considering handing in their notice that month. The exact figures vary, but the pattern is consistent enough to plan for. Commercial teams are particularly exposed, because the strongest performers are also the easiest for competitors to approach.
For a sales, finance or operations team, losing one or two strong people in the first quarter can set back the whole year’s plan. Most of what reduces that risk happens in November and December.
Why people leave in January
The triggers tend to be predictable:
- Bonus timing. Once a bonus has been paid, the main financial reason to stay has gone.
- Pay reviews. A review that lands below expectation, or isn’t explained, is often the moment the decision gets made.
- Career conversations that didn’t happen. People who can’t see their next step tend to go looking for it elsewhere.
- Their manager. As we covered in the accidental manager, people who rate their manager as ineffective are far more likely to be planning to leave.
What to do in November and December
Know who matters most. List the people whose departure would hurt the plan most, whether through revenue, client relationships or knowledge that isn’t written down. It is usually a short list.
Have the conversation before the break. Ask your key people directly how they see next year. A conversation in December is far easier than a counter-offer discussion in January, and the answers tend to be more honest.
Explain pay decisions properly. If budgets are tight, say so, and set out what is possible and when. People respond better to a clear explanation than to a number they have to interpret on their own.
Check workloads. Teams that have carried vacancies through the year are often the most likely to look elsewhere. If one or two people have been covering extra work since the summer, acknowledge it and set a date for when it will ease.
Make the next step visible. A defined development goal, a stretch project or a date for the next review gives people something concrete to stay for.
Plan for the departures you can’t prevent
Some people will leave regardless, and some departures are healthy for the team. The aim is to avoid being caught out.
Identify which roles would be hardest to replace and how long that would take. Senior commercial and finance hires can easily take three months once notice periods are included, so a resignation in January can leave a gap well into spring.
Decide in advance where interim cover would make sense, and keep the brief for each critical role up to date so you can move quickly. If a vacancy does come up, use it to check whether the role still matches what the business needs next year.
It also helps to keep in touch with strong candidates you met during the year. A shortlist from a recent hire can shorten the search considerably if a similar role opens up.
Plan your 2027 commercial hiring
Insight Select recruits commercial and professional services talent, from finance and sales to operations and HR. If you’re reviewing your team ahead of the new year, or want to be ready for a January resignation, talk to us about your plans.
